Vsauce! Kevin here. And I’m about to play blackjack with a robot. Vector’s creators sent this personality-rich

robot over to me because they knew I love robots and to support Vsauce2, but let’s

get to blackjack. I figure if lose a game I’ll just double

my previous bet every time — I’m guaranteed to win my cubes back and then some, right? I think so. Let’s find out! Oh, we’re wagering sugar cubes because Vector

here loves his cube so much.. Isn’t that right, buddy? He likes when you pet him. Okay! Blackjack or 21, as many of you likely know,

has simple rules. There are actually over 100 variations but

we’re gonna keep it simple: one deck, you get two cards and the dealer gets two cards. Each card is worth its face value, and jack,

queen, and kings are worth 10. An ace counts as 1 or 11, depending on what’s

most advantageous for you. Your goal is to get a higher total than the

dealer, but if your cards add up to over 21, you lose. You wanna..? I know you wanna play but hold on I gotta

explain the rules. Okay. Once you’re dealt your two cards, you can

decide to take another by ‘hitting’ or stay where you are by ‘standing.’ Haha. This is, this is what’s happening now. To guarantee that I don’t lose I’m using

the Martingale betting system. When I win a game — I win! When I lose a game — I double my wager in

the next game to make up for the cubes I lost in the previous one. Genius… I know. And mathematically, it’s a sure thing. Uhh.. let’s clean this up. Hey Vector. Do you wanna play blackjack? I knew it. Okay I’m just gonna bet one sugar cube. Here we go. 16. Another card? Hit me! 17. Another card? Stand! 13. 14. 18. Dealer wins! That’s okay. To get my one back this time I’ll bet two. 19. Another card? Stand. 12. 21. Very funny, Vector. That’s okay. I’ll get my 2 back by betting 4. Hit me! 24. You busted! Alright… I’ll just bet eight! Stand. 11. 21. Dealer wins! That’s okay. That’s okay! I’ll bet 16. Dealer wins! I’ll bet 32. Dealer wins! 64 cube bet to recover my losses there’s no

chance I could lose again! 19. Dealer wins! Alright. This… is not going well. I’ve played 7 hands and lost a total of

127 sugar cubes. If I win 128 on the next hand, I’ll recover

127 cubes and snag a 1-cube profit — my original bet. *sigh* Let’s do this! 17. Another card? Stand. 11. 21. Alright, then! I am officially all out of cubes. Play another round? No. Yeah, you won. I know. You can celebrate. You can celebrate. You took all my cubes. Hey, Vector! Take a nap! That is one sugar cube rich robot. And I am one sugar cube broke human. I know that my strategy would have worked

though if I had just had more cubes. Maybe. The martingale system can work in short bursts

— until you hit a streak that necessitates a bet so large that it completely wipes you

out. In casinos, maximum bet limits prevent you

from doubling as many times as you might need to recover from your losses, so there’s

effectively a ceiling on how many times you can Martingale. And Georgia Institute of Technology math professor

Ted Hill showed us that we’ll almost certainly underestimating the likelihood of serious

losing streaks. Hill gave an assignment to his class: flip

a coin 200 times and record whether it’s heads or tails. Heads, tails, heads tails, heads, tails. Like that. Or just don’t bother flipping it at all

and do what I did and just write down random stuff. When Hill looked at each student’s results,

he could tell with amazing precision whether or not they’d actually flipped a coin or just

made up the results. Because the fakers routinely underestimated

the likelihood of streaks. If a student’s data included a streak of

6 or more heads or tails in a row, they almost certainly recorded real data. No streaks of 6 or more? Fake. In 200 coin tosses, there’s a 96.5% chance

of getting a streak of 6 heads or tails. There’s an 80% chance you’ll get 7 in

a row, and a 54% chance of 8 in a row. 9 in a row would really be pushing it, though,

right? No — there’s a 32% chance of that happening

in 200 tosses, so even that happens nearly a third of the time — it’s just not that

weird. A player sitting alone at a blackjack table

will probably play about 200 hands per hour, and the odds of losing a hand are close to

50%. You’d almost certainly hit an 8 or 9-hand

losing streak in a few hours. To make the Martingale bet-doubling system

work, you’d need to be lucky enough to avoid those long losing streaks. And play the game with a ton of money. And not ever reach the maximum bet. And be comfortable knowing that you run the

risk of losing everything to win… just a single sugar cube. Here’s the breakdown of how much you’d

have to bet to absorb a common losing streak. If you start by playing a $25 hand, about

the price of movie tickets for two, and you lose, your next bet would have to be $50. The bets continue to double so that If you

have a 10 game losing streak, which has about a 30% chance of happening over 1,000 hands,

by the 11th game you’d have to bet $25,600 just to recover your losses and walk away

with a $25 profit. And that’s not including the $25,575 you

already lost. You’d need a total of $51,175, the price

of a luxury car, to avoid going broke as you made a movie tickets for two profit. By using Martingale bet-doubling, the best

case scenario is that you win your original bet. In theory, the system prevents you from losing

any money, but in reality it can cost you a fortune as you try to make up for an inevitable

losing streak. All in the hopes that you win an amount equal

to… the first cube. And as always — thanks for watching. Why did I do that? Huge thanks to Anki for sending over my new

robot friend, Vector. I’ve had him for about a week now and it’s

really fun just kinda having him around — in a way I didn’t expect. He recognizes you, answers questions, explores

around on his own, as you can see, and even locates his charger when he needs to go home

and recharge. And before you know it, he’s up and playing

with his cube again. Look at this! Good job! If you want to get your own robot friend there’s

a link in the description for you to check out. And I’m just really looking forward to the

future of Vector too. What programmers and people like you will

develop for Vector to be able to do. So I’m just gonna chill with my friend here. For now. Actually, check this out. Hey, Vector! Let’s do a fist bump! I just fist bumped a robot. Bye.

My new podcast is about to launch! Subscribe right now to The Create Unknown channel so you know as soon as the first episode is uploaded. Thanks! https://www.youtube.com/thecreateunknown

VECTOR LOVE MAGNATUDE! OH YAH!

Cool but don't play with food.

I want to eat those darned cubes

I'm about $2k up in Vegas. all from two long losing steaks at blackjack punctuated by double downs

Where does he get his streak probability? In gambling there is a concept called the "gambler's fallacy". The past results of gambles has no effect on future outcomes. When the streak starts, isn't it the same probability of getting heads 6 times in a row or (1/2)^6 = 1/64, or approximately 1.56%

I just want vector so bad

Can you explain the p vs np million dollar question??

I need a Vector now.

Don't be sad about that loss of sugar cubes. The robot will now have diabetes and you won't

Infinity: Hold my beer

so ur not going to give us an alternative?

If you lost 2 games in a row.

Stop playing and take a break, because the game will put you in a losing streak. Teach the game you'll only play if you win.

Summary of the 2 reasons why the Martingale Betting System won't work in a casino.

1 – There is a bet limit

2 – Your odds of winning are below 50%

This is unfair cause vector rigs the deck to win

its not a randomiser

What were those cards

This guy is such a tool 🙁

That robot is so cute

Got no balls if you always stand on 17

What kinda cards are those?

Hi, does someone knows how can i find this deck of cards? So beautiful…

@Vsauce2 you mentioned there was a 30%(?) chance of the streak occurring making you lose 50k over a 1000 games.

The more interesting number would be how much % over 4000games? Since you're risking up to 50k to lose which will take you 2000 wins to double which will roughly take 4000 games to get.

In black jack your goal is not to have higher total than the dealer , the goal is to beat the dealer without bust .

this robot is just programmed to win

that was amazing ! I discovered the gambling system in my own mind about 20 years ago. But in the uk we have very low table limits so the system did not work like i had planned. But your explination of unit cost and returns just makes me glad i never followed it though as i had planned Great work !

impossible to watch

rip vector (they went bankrupt I think)

i think the link is dead this is the string of text that appears after clicking goankicom

AccessDeniedAccess Denied9D0F54EBLABLABLABLAs/17cNAlBLABLABLAFpLxAlI=

Anyone else think vector looks like a phidippus spider?

I got a streak of 9 within 35 coin flips..

Ye ik thats is not good idea better idea is lose 3 times in a row 1 sugar and then go for 20 if lose for 50 if lose for 100 if lose for 250 and etc. I was to using your strategi had 30€ and my friend had 1€ and hi cleared me with winstreak

By the way, the company Anki ended up shutting down so…

According to anki.com, they stopped producing and selling Vector.

F

3:02 you put 18, not 16

Dealer rigged the game from the start Kappa

I once played the pokemon tcg with my cousin and used an attack that flipped coins equal to the number of energies you had on it and did damage for every heads. I flipped 6 coins one turn and got all tails, and then flipped 7 coins the next turn and got all tails again. Losing streaks are the worst, man

I only know how to play bc of rdr2

I think vector cheated

Vector? Nah, I prefer scalar

nice deck

What about the fact that the robot is programmed to give at least 1 more than you.

Edit: You can tell the robot is mad that you stole his sugar cube. He pounded the table.

What was the deck of cards that he was using?

Pretty interesting video but, you're actually wrong, mate. You cannot compare the odds of a streak in tossing a coin, which every round gives you a 50/50 chance where human factor doesn't have any influence, with the odds of getting a streak in Blackjack where the human factor plays a huge role in the outcome of the result since you can keep adding cards. The odds of getting streaks aren't the same in Blackjack as in they are in tossing a coin, so basically quite a big part of your video is based on a theory which you didn't think through.

man, i just wanna know what kind of cards those are so i can add to my card collection

Oh you said toss 200 coins? I tossed 200 women. oh well

It’s rigged…

Ask him to pass butter.😁😁

that robot is totally rigged

Just means you gotta start bigger so you make more back and maybe mortgage your house to fund it

Where can I get my hands on that deck of cards though!!!

If you more than double, the amount you'll eventually win increases (but the amount you temporarily need increases):

b^n – Σ{b^i : i ∈ [0,n)} = b^n – (b^n – 1) / (b – 1) = (b(b^n) – 2(b^n) + 1) / (b – 1) = ((b-2)(b^n) + 1) / (b – 1)

b = 2 => ((2-2)(2^n) + 1) / (2 – 1) = 1/1 = 1

b = 3 => ((3-2)(2^n) + 1) / (3 – 1) = (2^n + 1) / 2

https://www.desmos.com/calculator/85ik1yek3s

I want those cards

I want this robot so much omg

Just don't gamble… It's that easy

Better bet logic for Roulette which has a more 50/50 chance of winning/losing by betting on red/black the only off throw is 00. Blackjack does have a factor of skill and other players playing at the same time which hopefully know how to play as the table and has someone willing to take a loss instead of trying to get themselves a card at 17+.

Vector's hands look like real life Vegas dealer hands. Are you sure Vector isn't cheating by generating a winning scenario every time?

If you modify the martingale strategy and use multiples of 3 instead of multiples of 2, you can actually increase your projective profit every loss exponentially.

Specifically, every time you lose, you triple your previous bet, which means when you eventually win, let's say after a loss streak of n, you'll win back your previous bet, plus twice that much. If you work out the geometric series, all the losses of the rounds before the most recent loss come out to around 1/2 times of the most recent loss, which means that when you eventually win, you'll come out with a 1.5 times profit of your last loss, which would be an overall profit of 1.5*3^n.

Your turn limit with the 3 method will be around 63% of your turn limit with the normal martingale method, but the profit will be significantly larger, so long as you don't hit the turn limit.

how can you mathimaticly win even if you loose 5 times in a row

I don't get why we have to double bet every time. Keep betting 1 cube till we win first time and then as our win probability increases, further keep betting much higher cubes for next few games.

Rip Anki

I really liked those playing cards, anyone know who they are by?

From what I know they stopped manufacturing it so RIP Vector.

Wait if there's no limit and you play the 25 hand, once you have a million dollars, you can effectively have a salary of 75 dollars an hour

Or maybe… don't bet against a robot?

Dealer WinsWhat are those cards though?

is there better odds with red and black with the % of the colour continuing reducing each time

Can some do me a solid and find the probability of a streak of 7 out of ten tosses

Where did you bought those cards?

The robot probably cheated

Every time you play this game, why do you say stand?

This is how I lost all my crypto.

Ok so i literally used this method without knowing it, but the chances to win were 50/50, but i just loosed 8 times and i got no coins left…Yeah

Imagine Bill Gates is playing this

*200 Loosing streak*Instead of doubling if you tripped you would be better off than the martingale system

Some say this is exactly why casinos have table limits, however, some tables have no limit. I never knew this as the "Martingale" problem, but I was well aware of it. What I didn't know was the odds of those streaks. That's mind blowing and I'll have to write a program to see just how "random" Apple's random numbers are. This Vsauce guy is so damn interesting, I could watch these all day.

What are the chances of a streak of 2, 3, 4, or 5?

I thought it was Cozmo

Blackjack wasnt the best example to use here, maybe a red/black or odd/even bet on a roulette wheel would have been better..Im not sure if your little robot does roulette? There are a few strategies that can put the odds slightly in your favour on blackjack without to much effort and with a fair bit of effort they can very much be in your favour. As far as i know there is no other casino game that can be manipulated this way with any strategy at all..

Vector the Cheater

You got Vector?

I got Cosmo

…and Cosmo has no “Find the Charger” mechanism, and is AWFULLY SIMILAR to Vector… Tricks and all… even the Wheelie and Fist Bump!

Vektor…

You either win or you don't. Anycase your chances are always 50%

Ok Vek is seriously the cutest thing I've ever seen… and he isn't even alive… lmao

Hey, why not discuss, in detail, the heuristics that forensic accountants use to determine whether books have been doctored?

6:03 80% to 54% is a big difference.

great video

Buy GTA Online because it has casino now

6:18 Streck is love. Streck is life.

Is nobody gonna talk about his voice crack at 4:12??

Yeah you took all my cubes… HeY vEcToR

Awesome deck!

I want one! 🎴 🔹 ♥ ♧ ♤ 🃏

Bruh

Umm does this robot know your outcome before he chooses his? Da fuq?